Shostack + Friends Blog Archive

I’d bet on security prediction markets

In his own blog [link to http://blog.cloppert.org/2008/05/market-based-approach-to-predicting.html no longer works], Michael Cloppert writes:

Adam, and readers from Emergent Chaos, provided some good feedback on this idea. Even though the general response is that this wouldn’t be a supportable approach, I appreciate the input! This helps me focus my research intentions on the most promising theories and technologies.

I’m glad my readers helped with good feedback, but I think he’s taking the wrong lesson. The lesson should be that there are lots of skeptics, not that the idea won’t work.

And Adam from InklingMarkets has offered to help.)

Haft of the Spear points [link to http://haftofthespear.com/2008/06/get-your-s-together-before-hap/ no longer works] to an Inkling market, “Group Intel” [http://predict.groupintel.com/ no longer works] who are taking bets on bin Laden’s being captured or killed [link to http://predict.groupintel.com/markets/12713 no longer works] before the end of Bush II. There have only been a few trades with hefty price swings, but why not try it out for infosec? Maybe some chaos would emerge.

(Incidentally, new, interesting comments are still coming in on “Security Prediction Markets: theory & practice.”)

Originally published by adam on 23 Jun 2008
Last modified on 20 Dec 2022
Categories:   economics   emergent chaos   information security   markets