Election Prediction
Adam's election prediction and request.
[Update: I was clearly wrong and will now resume my regularly scheduled security blogging.]
I predict that Harris will win with a landslide in the popular vote (4+ million) and a moderate win in the Electoral College (300ish). My primary reasons are demographics, women’s healthcare and the unprecedented bipartisan opposition to Trump. Each of these makes a Harris victory more likely, and “more” is all she needs relative to previously closely divided votes in “battleground states.”
Demographically, there are two megatrends. The first is that covid killed over a million people. Those people tended Republican, and were concentrated in areas where there were more Trump voters. That was exacerbated by the disease spreading more in those areas as a result of lower masking and vaccination rates, and so more Trump voters died than Biden voters. The second demographic trend is age. Trump’s most reliable voters are older, and even without covid, old people die more than young ones. This headwind is magnified by young people coming into the electorate, and young people tend to be less conservative. Either of these could swing elections divided by a few thousand or tends of thousands of votes.
The second reason I think Harris will win is women’s health care. We’ve seen a parade of horror stories over women being unable to get health care as they approach death’s door or even die if the issue has anything to do with reproduction. We’ve seen women forced to carry babies to term because of abortion bans. That’s widely seen as a factor in Biden maintaining control of the Senate in 2022, and the razor’s edge in the House, all in a year when normal trends would have brought a red wave. Those factors are larger, and Republicans have shown themselves captive to a minority that’s out of touch the the American mainstream.
The third reason is Trump’s unprecedented ability to drive Republicans away. Republican Vice Presidents including Dick Cheney and Mike Pence have said they won’t vote for Trump. Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance called him reprehensible, leading me to question if it was lust for power or blackmail that brought him onto the ticket. (A bad choice, but I hope it was pure lust for power.) Presidential daughter Barbara Bush has endorsed Harris. Trump’s own leadership team is against him. Republicans may mock them as “Republican in Name Only,” but there are too many for that to be a credible claim. Trump has broken a longstanding coalition. In many other democracies, this would result in a government of national unity, with a focus on overcoming one or more critical problems.
As I said when I kicked off this series: “The only thing democracy is any good at is the peaceful transfer of legitimacy. Note that I now say “legitimacy,” not “power.” Power follows legitimacy. What democracy does is give us a way to change the idiots at the top — without resorting to violence,” and “your goal in a democracy is to get your fellow citizens to vote with you for those positions, so those who lose see that their positions are less popular, and that your positions gain legitimacy.” I hope the difference in vote totals is large enough that the outcome is clear.
As I draft this on October 29th, the election has already been marred by attacks on ballot boxed in Arizona, Oregon, and Washington. Those attacks, stinking of desperation, do nothing to create legitimacy. I am hopeful that those will have been the last of the violence. My goal in writing these posts has been to add my voice towards sanity, and to influence a few people to vote for the long term good of our country.
In the coming days, I’ll go back a little to the purple maps I’ve
been
posting since ... 2004, like
,
and a bit about misinformation before, I hope, returning to
cybersecurity as the main topic here.
Before I do, why is my prediction at odds with others? I believe that no one wants to tell you that the election isn’t really close. The media wants your clicks. The Russian, Chinese and Iranians all want it to be close enough that they can then support violence and help tear our country apart. They have a collaborator. The Harris campaign wants you to get out and vote.
I’m hopeful that, at the literal end of the night, the trend will be clear and the election will be called. I’m hopeful that democracy, hope and American decency will win.
I encourage everyone to vote, and to vote against Donald Trump, for the good of America.